WASHINGTON, D.C. – Countries around the world are worried about their future as birth rates continue to fall, and in the United States, the conversation has reached the White House. President Trump has sparked a national debate over how to address America’s so-called baby bust.
“One of our biggest concerns is that we’re going to see a cultural mass extinction,” said Simone Collins, a pro-family activist and co-founder of pronatalist.org, a group promoting policies to make it easier for Americans to start and grow families.
“It’s not like we really need to force people into having kids. In fact, we think that’s a really bad idea,” she said. “We only want wanted children in this world. But right now, we do things to actively make it harder to be a parent, even if you want to be.”
CDC data show the number of babies born in the U.S. hit a 45-year low in 2023, with only a few states at or above replacement level. Experts warn that it could spell long-term economic and social consequences.
“One in four young adults are projected to never become moms or dads,” said Dr. Brad Wilcox of the University of Virginia. “And I think that’s just a great tragedy because for most of us, nothing lends our lives more meaning and purpose, absent of faith, than the opportunity of being both a spouse and a parent.”
“People have had, since the 1960s, this misguided worry about overpopulation,” added Dr. Melissa Kearney of the University of Maryland.
Economists warn that declining birth rates mean fewer workers, lower tax revenue, and an aging population with fewer younger people to support them.
“If you haven’t invested in friendship and family, you’re going to be in a bad spot in the last chapter of your life,” Wilcox said.
Prominent voices like Elon Musk are also sounding the alarm.
Musk has said, “The birthrate is low in almost every country, and unless that changes, civilization will disappear.”
The White House is now exploring ways to encourage Americans to have more children. “We will support baby bonuses for a new baby boom. How does that sound?” Trump said to cheers at CPAC.
Among the proposals under consideration are a $5,000 payment to new mothers, a $1,000 tax-free investment account for each newborn, Fulbright scholarships for married or parenting applicants, and federal funding for fertility awareness education.
“This movement tends to transcend so many different groups,” said Emma Waters of the Heritage Foundation. “It incorporates your Silicon Valley tech brothers, so many religious conservatives, but also ties into a sort of crunch con liberal or even libertarian who’s really interested in these holistic root cause approaches to fertility and overall vitality.”
Collins has even floated awarding a national medal for motherhood for women who raise six or more children. “We need to show that we support and celebrate people who make these sacrifices,” she said.
President Trump is also pledging to lower the cost of IVF to make family growth more accessible.
What’s behind America’s baby bust? The experts say, for many, it’s not a lack of desire, but a lack of support. The cost of living is high, childcare is more expensive, and family dynamics have changed.
“We’ve all heard the old adage, it takes a village to raise a child, and we don’t live in those villages anymore,” said Erin Erenberg of the Chamber of Mothers.
Women are also starting families later in life, with greater access to contraception and changing priorities.
Declining faith may also be a factor. Research shows religious Americans are more likely to have children, while the nonreligious, a group that has doubled to 29 percent since 2007, according to Pew, tend to delay or forgo parenthood altogether.
Not everyone agrees that the government should intervene.
Critics argue women are being treated like a solution to an economic problem while personal freedom and other issues are ignored.
“We have enough studies to show the desire to become a parent is not universal, though most of us have the capacity to become biological parents,” said Nandita Bajaj, executive director of Population Balance.
Even among baby boom supporters, there is debate over how to encourage parenthood, whether by promoting marriage or implementing broader policy changes.
“We should be also thinking about how we make the marital bond the foundation of any effort to kind of address this fertility challenge that now faces us,” Wilcox said.
“It’s no secret what moms are demanding,” Erenberg said. “So, we choose paid leave, affordable childcare, and improved maternal health outcomes. There is at least 80 percent voter approval rating around all three of these things.”
For many families, it comes down to the math.
Surveys show some parents spend about $1,000 a year on diapers alone, and some estimates suggest raising a child through high school now costs more than $300,000.
“Something like a family bonus that would provide financial support and encouragement to working married families to say hey, if finances are what you’re struggling with, here’s a way that we can provide a boost and really encourage you on that path,” said Waters.
“The most important part when it comes to addressing falling birth rates isn’t necessarily to incentivize having kids,” said Collins. “The biggest thing is how do we take the foot off the neck of parents who want to have more kids.”
Whether reversing the nation’s low birth rate comes from culture shifts or public policy, many families say they are not asking for a push, just a helping hand.
